Carnegie Institute revealed in a new report that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman truly believes that his international image as a “liberal reformer” can be salvaged if he pays the right people or twists the right arms.
Saudi Arabia would use any renewed crisis in Ukraine, and any resulting energy crunch, as a means of rehabilitating Mohammed bin Salman’s image, the report said.
It’s important to note that he admires Russian President Vladimir Putin, and in some ways even models himself after him—the decisive strongman who fights corruption, consolidates power, and pursues unconventional and asymmetric strategies such as disinformation and cyber tools. Putin was one of the few leaders who stood by Mohammed bin Salman during his darkest hours—the months following the Khashoggi murder.
Wilson Center has earlier described Mohammed bin Salman as a dictator and an enemy of democracy and human rights.
The Center stressed that the US administration should think twice before lifting the isolation imposed on Mohammed bin Salman after the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Saudi Arabia holds 15% of the world’s proved oil reserves. It is the largest exporter of crude oil in the world and maintains the world’s largest crude oil production capacity at nearly 12 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia is the largest crude oil producer in OPEC and the second-largest total petroleum liquids producer in the world after the United States.
As the US and its allies stand united against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Saudi Arabia is siding with Russia. By failing to publicly condemn the invasion and reiterating its commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, the Saudi government exposed cracks in its long-standing partnership with the United States.
Saudi unwillingness to raise oil output in response to Biden’s request represents the latest sign of shifting loyalties. Throughout a seven-decade partnership, Washington has acted as Riyadh’s main security guarantor, and, in return, most Saudi monarchs coordinated closely with the United States on energy issues.
However, since Mohammed bin Salman consolidated power, the bilateral relationship has been increasingly strained by reckless Saudi foreign-policy decisions, including a seven-year war on Yemen, as well as a deteriorating human rights record, most glaringly apparent in the gruesome murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
When speaking to the Americans, the Saudis have long insisted on ever greater assurances of U.S. protection against Iran and the groups it supports around the region. If Riyadh is willing to overlook such fears in order to partner with Beijing or Moscow, it will be clear that this position was largely intended to play upon Washington’s lingering mistrust of Tehran.
Even if the crown prince’s unease about Iran is genuine, his anxieties about internal unrest are greater. For this reason, he would prefer a partner like Putin, who manifested his commitment to keeping Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in power even at the cost of massive civilian casualties. He hopes that by siding with Russia now, the Kremlin will come through for him in an hour of need, such as massive popular protests by Saudi citizens.
The current US policy of appeasing Saudi Arabia only reinforces the crown prince’s perception that Biden needs him more than Riyadh needs Washington.
