As the Saudi regime continues to promote its “Vision 2030” as the most ambitious economic transformation plan in the world, the Financial Times has revealed a troubling development: the very architects of this transformation — Western consulting giants — have begun pulling back, downsizing operations, and losing confidence in a model they once helped build.
This isn’t just a financial story — it’s an implicit admission of the bankruptcy of the vision’s core logic. When a government starts to question the very minds that shaped its strategy, it signals the beginning of what can only be described as a phase of “delayed denial”: the end of the infatuation era, and the start of reckoning.
Cracks in the Brain of the Vision
Since 2016, Saudi Arabia has been a goldmine for top consulting firms such as McKinsey, PwC, BCG, Deloitte, EY, and others. Billions of dollars were poured into contracts to design plans, implement reforms, and restructure ministries as part of the so-called “national transformation.” But according to the Financial Times, these firms are now halting hiring, slowing expansion, and bracing for what seems to be the end of the golden age of consulting in the Kingdom.
Indicators paint a worrying picture: the consulting market growth rate has plummeted from 25% in 2024 to just around 11–12% this year. Massive government contracts are being scaled back. Vision priorities are being reconsidered after ballooning project costs and minimal tangible returns. One former PwC partner told the FT bluntly: “The government is becoming increasingly sceptical of consultants… they tend to overpromise and speak in overly optimistic terms.”
This statement encapsulates the crisis: Vision 2030 was driven more by spectacle than substance, more by headlines than by numbers.
The Bubble Burst Before Bearing Fruit
In the early years of Vision 2030, consultants were essentially the regime’s executive brain. They drafted plans, restructured ministries, and designed mega-projects like Neom, The Line, Qiddiya, the Red Sea Project, and Diriyah Gate. But most of these remained theoretical showpieces or costly prototypes.
Now, with oil prices dropping and cash reserves dwindling, the financial torrent that sustained this market is drying up. Ministries are cutting consultancy spending. Annual auto-renewed contracts are being cancelled. In essence, the illusion-fueled market has run out of fuel.
From Fascination to Skepticism
The shift is profound: top analysts now say the Saudi government is “more sceptical” of consultants, reflecting a major trust erosion. This skepticism didn’t arise out of wisdom — it followed a trail of failures: billion-dollar projects stuck in blueprint stages, development schemes that failed to align with local realities, and flashy initiatives that vanished as soon as the contract ended.
Even within government institutions, internal dissent is growing: “Why are we paying millions to foreigners to tell us what we already know?”
An Economy Built on Appearances
The Saudi regime’s new economic model is one of showmanship over production: futuristic designs, grandiose conferences, impressive figures — all with no real productive base. Consulting firms were perfect partners in this game, selling “calculated imagination” through polished PowerPoints. But when the numbers didn’t add up, the regime realized these firms weren’t building success — they were selling illusions.
A British analyst sarcastically remarked: “They sold Saudi Arabia the future like second-hand furniture: shiny on the outside, hollow on the inside.”
Deeper Reasons: Oil Isn’t Enough, and AI Is a Threat
The FT article outlines several direct causes for the decline of consulting in Saudi Arabia:
Falling oil prices, limiting government spending.
Reevaluation of Vision 2030 priorities after project failures.
Questionable returns on high consultancy spending.
The rise of artificial intelligence, which offers cheaper alternatives for planning and analytics.
This creates a double crisis for the regime: declining funds and declining efficiency. In a state where the economy is entirely state-funded, a shock to oil revenues means paralysis for the entire vision.
Collapse of the “Modern Mind” Narrative
The regime long portrayed itself as a forward-looking entity grounded in science and international expertise. But the retreat of Western consulting firms deals a huge blow to this narrative. The so-called “Western mind” — once a symbol of modernization — is now walking away from a failed experiment.
This isn’t merely economic stagnation; it’s the collapse of the intellectual legitimacy behind the project. When the Financial Times declares that the “glory days are over” for consultants in the Kingdom, it’s essentially saying: the days of blind awe over an unfounded vision are gone too.
A Slow-Burning Awakening
Despite heavy media censorship, segments of Saudi society are starting to ask aloud: Where are the results of all those plans and reports? Why is the country sinking into debt while promises evaporate? How can the regime claim to diversify the economy while still relying solely on oil and borrowing?
These questions signal the beginning of a new economic consciousness: the realization that Vision 2030 is less a real development plan and more a political marketing campaign to buy time and polish the regime’s image.
Investors Are Watching — And Worrying
International financial institutions are watching this with growing concern. A drop in consultancy contracts often signals restricted government spending and declining investor confidence in major projects. Consequently, investment funds are hesitant to pour money into ventures with no proven success.
Even the regime’s partners — from the U.S. to the UK — increasingly view the Saudi market as a short-term PR opportunity, not a mature economy.
The failure of the consulting sector isn’t just an administrative misstep; it reflects a deeper governance crisis. A regime that dismantled oversight institutions, concentrated power in the hands of one crown prince, and relied on “rented minds” instead of nurturing local talent now faces the consequences. When those minds exit the stage, what’s left is a void: no institutions, no planning, no checks and balances.
From Imported Minds to Imported Excuses
As consultancy firms pack their bags and leave Riyadh, what collapses is not just a service market — but the illusion that slogans like “reform” and “transformation” could cover up a hollow reality.
The era of “paper planning” is over. Now begins the era of harsh truths: a strained economy, stalled projects, and mounting debt.
As the Financial Times rightly put it: “The glory days are over” — because the glory was never real to begin with. It was manufactured, bought with oil money, sold with PR, and shattered at the first economic hurdle.
Today, we return to the fundamental question: what remains of a vision run by mercenary minds and paralyzed local hands?
The answer is simple: a vacuum — behind which stands a regime that keeps trying to resell the same dream each year under a new name, because the truth… cannot be consulted — only concealed.
